¿Qué política monetaria necesita China?

El notable crecimiento de China se vio financiado recientemente por una rápida expansión monetaria y crediticia que está produciendo un auge de la inversión cada vez más insostenible. Esto realimenta los temores de que el país tal vez no pueda impedir una repetición del doloroso ciclo de apogeo y colapso como el que padeció a mediados de los años 90.

La política monetaria normalmente es la primera línea de defensa en este tipo de situaciones. Pero la política monetaria de China resultó afectada por el régimen estrechamente controlado de tipo de cambio. Este régimen impide al banco central –el Banco del Pueblo de China (PBC)- tomar decisiones apropiadas en materia de políticas a fin de administrar la demanda interna, ya que las subas de las tasas de interés podrían alentar las afluencias de capital y ejercer mayor presión sobre el tipo de cambio.

Por supuesto, la política de tipo de cambio de China hoy es motivo de intenso debate. El creciente excedente comercial de China llevó a algunos observadores a pedir que se revaluara el renminbi para corregir lo que consideran una ventaja competitiva injusta que mantiene China en los mercados internacionales. Otros sostienen que el tipo de cambio estable alienta la estabilidad macroeconómica en China. Pero este debate se aparta del verdadero sentido.

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