¿Qué nos depara el 2011?

NUEVA YORK – La economía global termina el 2010 más dividida que a comienzos del año. Por un lado, los países de mercados emergentes como India, China y las economías del sudeste asiático están experimentando un crecimiento robusto. Por otro lado, Europa y Estados Unidos enfrentan un estancamiento –de hecho, un malestar al estilo japonés- y un desempleo tenazmente alto. El problema en los países avanzados no es una recuperación sin empleo, sino una recuperación anémica –o peor, la posibilidad de una recesión de doble caída. 

Este mundo de dos pistas plantea algunos riesgos inusuales. Mientras que la producción económica de Asia es demasiado pequeña para impulsar el crecimiento en el resto del mundo, puede bastar para hacer subir los precios de las materias primas.

Mientras tanto, los esfuerzos de parte de Estados Unidos por estimular su economía a través de la política de “alivio cuantitativo” pueden fracasar. Después de todo, en los mercados financieros globalizados, el dinero busca las mejores perspectivas en todo el mundo, y estas perspectivas están en Asia, no en Estados Unidos. De manera que el dinero no irá adonde se lo necesita, y gran parte de ese dinero terminará donde no se lo quiere –causando mayores incrementos en los precios de los activos y las materias primas, especialmente en los mercados emergentes.

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