singer187_ WILLIAM WESTAFP via Getty Images_melbourne lockdown William West/AFP via Getty Images

To Lock Down or Not to Lock Down?

When deciding whether to impose strict public-health measures to rein in COVID-19, it is not enough to determine how many lives will be saved and lost. An adequate assessment of the costs and benefits must address three issues.

MELBOURNE – For the past three months, this metropolitan area of nearly five million people, the capital of the Australian state of Victoria, has been under one of the world’s tightest lockdowns. You may leave home only if shopping for essential items, meeting medical needs, providing care, taking up to two hours of daily exercise, and going to work if it is impossible to work from home. Travel of more than five kilometers (3.1 miles) from home, or across the boundary of the metropolitan area, is prohibited. Police hand out heavy fines to violators.

The Victorian government ordered the lockdown on July 5, after a day in which the state, which has a population of 6.7 million, recorded 191 new COVID-19 cases – the state’s highest daily total since the pandemic began. The outbreak peaked at 723 new cases on July 30 and then began to fall. By October 4, the 14-day moving average had dropped to 12.

At the time of writing, the state has had over 20,000 cases and 800 deaths. All the other Australian states together have had fewer than 7,000 cases and under one hundred deaths, making it possible to hope that Australia could eliminate the virus, as neighboring New Zealand has come close to doing.

We hope you're enjoying Project Syndicate.

To continue reading, subscribe now.

Subscribe

or

Register for FREE to access two premium articles per month.

Register

Support High-Quality Commentary

For more than 25 years, Project Syndicate has been guided by a simple credo: All people deserve access to a broad range of views by the world's foremost leaders and thinkers on the issues, events, and forces shaping their lives. At a time of unprecedented uncertainty, that mission is more important than ever – and we remain committed to fulfilling it.

But there is no doubt that we, like so many other media organizations nowadays, are under growing strain. If you are in a position to support us, please subscribe now.

As a subscriber, you will enjoy unlimited access to our On Point suite of long reads, book reviews, and insider interviews; Big Picture topical collections; Say More contributor interviews; Opinion Has It podcast features; The Year Ahead magazine, the full PS archive, and much more. You will also directly support our mission of delivering the highest-quality commentary on the world's most pressing issues to as wide an audience as possible.

By helping us to build a truly open world of ideas, every PS subscriber makes a real difference. Thank you.

Subscribe Now

https://prosyn.org/IJDcCaA