财政赤字何去何从?

雷克亚未克—— 没有人知道全球金融危机什么时候才会结束。但有一点是肯定的:政府的财政赤字将达到一个惊人的水平。在接下来的日子里,投资者将被迫购买大量的新发国债。

虽然政府可以将债务转嫁到本国储户的头上(例如,政府利用自身的影响力来迫使银行持有大量的国债。),但他们最终也会发现,为此会支付利息也是可观的。在接下来的几年中,美国政府长期债券的利率很快就会升到3-4%,其他国家还会更高。

利率的升高主要有来自两个方面:一是补偿对投资人大量持有政府债券。二是补偿国债通货膨胀后的损失,以及违约偿还的风险。

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