印度发生了什么?

芝加哥—全球各新兴市场国家——以巴西、中国、印度和俄罗斯为首——正在减速。原因之一是它们仍直接或间接地依赖于向工业化国家的出口。工业化国家的增长减速,特别是欧洲,具有抑制经济的作用。

但第二个原因是它们各自有着重大弱点,并且没能在繁荣期克服这些弱点。中国的问题是过度依赖固定资产投资带动增长。在巴西,低储蓄和各种制度性障碍导致利率高企、投资不足,教育制度也无法给相当多的人口提供良好教育。俄罗斯尽管拥有教育程度较高的人口,但仍然需要依赖商品维持经济增长。

不过,最难以理解的事情是印度的表现为何会大大低于其潜力。事实上,2010年以来,印度年GDP增长率降低了5个百分点。

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