Greek flag held by teenage boy Michael Debets/ZumaPress

希腊繁荣需要什么

纽约—一些经济学家忽视了一个现代观点,即,一国的繁荣取决于创新和企业家精神。他们机械地认为,繁荣事关就业,而就业决定于“需求”——政府支出、家庭消费和投资需求。

在希腊问题上,这些经济学家认为,财政政策转向“紧缩”——即缩小公共部门——导致了需求急剧萎缩,从而发生萧条。但这一观点误解了历史,也夸大了政府支出的力量。

希腊就业率下降中有很大一部分发生在2012—2014年支出大幅缩减之前,毫无疑问,这是拜政府信心下降所赐。2009—2012年希腊政府每季度支出攀升至135亿欧元左右的高峰,然后在2014—2015年下降至96亿美元左右。但有工作者人数在2006—2009年期间达到高峰(450万),到2012年已下降至360万。当希腊开始缩减预算时,其失业率——占2009年劳动力比例为9.6%——几乎已经上升到当前水平(25.5%)。

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