Quelle crise euro?

FRANCFORT – Comment reconnaître une crise ? Prend-elle la forme d’une récession économique persistante, d’un chômage à long terme trop élevé, de la pauvreté, de l’inflation galopante, d’une chute prononcée du taux de change, de déficits budgétaires, de coût d’emprunt élevé ou d’une impasse politique ? La plupart s’entendent pour dire qu’il y a crise si quelques-uns seulement des indices de misère se présentent. Or, même si la perception générale voudrait que l’Europe soit en proie à une crise, il n’y a que très peu de signes présents, et ce, uniquement dans un petit nombre de pays de la zone euro.

Pourquoi donc y a-t-il une crise de la zone euro et qu’est-ce qui la définit ? Maintes et maintes fois, l’argument a été avancé que la monnaie commune ne répond pas aux différents besoins de ses pays membres et que des trajectoires économiques divergentes non viables conduiront inévitablement à l’abandon de l’euro.

Les divergences fatidiques les plus souvent citées vont des taux de croissance de différents niveaux, de création d’emploi et de chômage, de même que les énormes disparités des balances courantes, facteurs qui tous attribuables aux écarts importants des coûts unitaires de main-d’œuvre. Les perceptions de ces divergences imposent des primes élevées de risque aux pays problèmes entraînant inévitablement une accélération de la fuite des capitaux vers des eaux moins agitées.

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