Co nutí centrální banky intervenovat?

Pozorovatelé centrálních bank všude ve světě mají novou kratochvíli: srovnávají chování amerického Federálního rezervního úřadu (tzv. Fed) s chováním Evropské centrální banky (ECB). Nejvíce pozornosti bylo zatím věnováno řízení úrokových sazeb obou bank, ale pro dopad na růst stojí za povšimnutí i rozdílný styl jejich intervencí v rámci globálních měnových trhů.

Po uvedení eura na trh v lednu 1999 se jeho hodnota oproti hlavním světovým měnám, zvláště americkému dolaru a japonskému jenu, výrazně snížila. Vzhledem k tomu, že směnný kurz má vliv na konkurenceschopnost ekonomiky, devalvace eura prospěla vývozu a vývozcům v EU - na úkor jejich amerických protějšků.

Bylo by nasnadě, kdyby se americkému průmyslu, vystavenému kruté mezinárodní cenové konkurenci, zdála síla dolaru nežádoucí. Američtí politici, kteří s nervozitou komentují rostoucí deficit obchodní bilance, měli rovněž projevit větší starost. Avšak s výjimkou konkrétních sektorů - například ocelářství - většina amerických politiků a šéfů firem drží jazyk za zuby a o síle dolaru nemluví a jen málokdo, pokud vůbec někdo, skáče radostí z jeho nedávného propadu.

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