Bienvenidos a la era de la incompetencia

Hay dos hipótesis diametralmente opuestas sobre lo que sucederá a los tipos de interés reales en el mundo durante la próxima generación.

Quienes predicen tipos de interés en general bajos durante la próxima generación señalan el rápido aumento de la productividad y de la producción potencial en la economía mundial. Según esa opinión, el problema principal que afrontarán los bancos centrales no será el de restringir la demanda, cuando se dispare por encima de su potencial, sino el de estimularla cuando quede rezagada respecto de este. Señalan que los principales bancos centrales del mundo -la Reserva Federal, el Banco Central Europeo y el Banco del Japón- se han granjeado tan firmemente su crédito antiinflacionista, que se ha eliminado de los tipos de interés la prima de riesgo por la inflación.

Los que creen que habrá tipos de interés bajos subrayan también los cambios en la distribución de los ingresos en los Estados Unidos al alejarse de la mano de obra y acercarse al capital, lo que ha aumentado en gran medida los recursos de las empresas para financiar la inversión en el interior y ha reducido la dependencia de los mercados de capitales. Señalan los rápidos avances tecnológicos, que han aumentado la producción resultante de inversiones de capital antiguas y nuevas. Como la competencia es sólida en toda la economía, dicen que podemos esperar una generación de precios relativamente altos de los activos y tipos de interés reales relativamente bajos a escala mundial.

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