Vorbereitung auf das Unbekannte

LONDON – Wir leben in riskanten Zeiten. Immer dann, wenn wir uns sicher fühlen, passiert etwas, dass uns den Boden unter den Füßen weg zu ziehen scheint. Handlungen und Ereignisse sind oft miteinander verwoben, und was auf einer Ebene geschieht – und Einzelpersonen, Staaten, Wirtschaftsektoren und Unternehmen jeglicher Größe beeinflusst – kann sich auch auf andere Ebenen auswirken.

Ein Beispiel dafür sind die jüngsten Terroranschläge in Paris, die nicht nur die Familien und Freunde der Opfer und auch nicht nur die Franzosen betreffen. Ihre Auswirkungen sind auf der ganzen Welt spürbar, und sie werden auch zukünftig – weit über Europa hinaus – einen Einfluss auf die öffentliche Politik, die Wahlen, die Freiheit der Medien und vieles andere haben.

Die Anschläge kamen zu einer Zeit, zu der sich die Welt traditionell auf das folgende Jahr vorbereitet – und dabei versucht, die kommenden Risiken, Möglichkeiten und Herausforderungen einzuschätzen. Aber was ist mit längerfristigen Risiken? Zeigen Ereignisse wie die Anschläge von Paris nicht, dass solche Vorhersagen unmöglich sind? Oder sind dies genau die Risiken, die durch langfristige Vorhersagen erkannt werden sollten?

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