Arrastrado por la corriente del segundo alivio cuantitativo de la Fed

NUEVA YORK – Imagínense que entran en la ducha, abren la canilla y no sale agua. Llaman a un plomero, que les dice que hay orificios en las cañerías y que la reparación les costará 1.000 dólares. Ustedes le dicen que, en cambio, aumente la presión del agua.

¿Suena sensato? Bueno, ésta es la lógica detrás de la segunda ronda de “alivio cuantitativo” (QE2, por su sigla en inglés) de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos, su estrategia para seguir inundando las cañerías de dinero hasta que el crédito empiece otra vez a fluir libremente de los bancos a las empresas.

Ustedes no esperarían que esto funcionara en la ducha, y existen pocos motivos para esperar que funcione en el mercado de crédito comercial. El mecanismo de transmisión de crédito en Estados Unidos –y en otras partes- se vio seriamente dañado desde 2007. Las pequeñas y medianas empresas en Estados Unidos dependen de los bancos pequeños y medianos para acceder al crédito vital; sin embargo, muchos de estos bancos siguen comportándose como zombis, incapaces de prestar porque sus balances están plagados de créditos comerciales e inmobiliarios incobrables heredados de los años de apogeo.

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