حل اللاحل في سوريا

برلين ــ إن الخطة الروسية الأميركية لإزالة الأسلحة الكيميائية السورية ــ والتي يجسدها الآن قرار مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة رقم 2118 ــ قد تفتح مجالاً أكثر إيجابية لإنهاء الحرب الأهلية في البلاد، لأن مجلس الأمن يطالب أيضاً بعقد مؤتمر جنيف الثاني الذي طال التخطيط له بشأن سوريا في أقرب وقت ممكن. والحق أن التخلص من مخزون الأسلحة الكيميائية لدى سوريا لابد أن يتزامن مع عملية سياسية لإنهاء الحرب هناك.

فمن الناحية العملية، لا يمكن تنفيذ الجهود الرامية إلى التحقق من المخزون الضخم من الأسلحة الكيميائية لدى سوريا وتأمينها ثم تدميرها في نهاية المطاف من دون التوصل على الأقل إلى اتفاق دائم لوقف إطلاق النار. ولكن تزامن العمليتين ضروري لأسباب أخرى أيضا.

فبعيداً عن المعاناة الإنسانية الناجمة عن الحرب الدائرة في سوريا، ينبغي لنا أن نعي العواقب الإقليمية الوخيمة المحتملة. ويحذر بعض المراقبين الآن من "لبننة" سوريا ــ تقسيم البلاد إلى إقطاعيات متنافسة ومناطق شبه مستقلة. ولكن تفكك سوريا ليس السيناريو الوحيد الممكن.

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