Yanis Varoufakis EU Council Eurozone/Flickr

Plan B

MÜNCHEN – Spieltheoretiker wissen, dass sie auch den Plan B durchdenken müssen, denn er ist der Drohpunkt, von dem das Verhandlungsergebnis für Plan A maßgeblich abhängt. Der griechische Finanzminister Yanis Varoufakis arbeit als Mann für das Grobe  an Plan B, während Alexis Tsipras, sein Regierungschef, sich für Plan A zur Verfügung stellt. Das Rollenspiel gehört zur Strategie.

Die Vorbereitung von Plan B, dem Austritt aus dem Euro, hat zwei Elemente. Zum Einen muss man provozieren, um die eigene Bevölkerung für den Fall eines Austritts zu emotionalisieren. Ohne die Eskalation des Streits wäre das griechische Volk nicht bereit, der Regierung während der  schwierigen Zeit nach dem Austritt die Treue zu halten.

Zum anderen gilt es, die Kosten des Plans B für die Gegenseite in die Höhe zu treiben. Das tut die griechische Regierung, indem sie ihren Bürgern die Kapitalflucht erlaubt. Sie könnte die Flucht eindämmen, wenn sie sich konziliant zeigen würde, und sie könnte sie mit Kapitalverkehrskontrollen sofort unterbinden. Aber das würde ihre Drohpunkt verschlechtern.

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