أفغانستان والتقسيم الحتمي

نيودلهي ــ إن الولايات المتحدة، التي لا تزال غارقة في مستنقع حرب مطولة في أفغانستان والتي تكبدت تكاليفها بالدم والمال، تعتزم فتح محادثات سلام رسمية مع طالبان، خصمها الرئيسي في ساحة المعركة، في الأيام المقبلة (على الرغم من معارضة الرئيس الأفغاني حامد كرزاي في اللحظة الأخيرة). ومع إصرار الولايات المتحدة على سحب قواتها بعد أكثر من عشر سنوات من القتال، فإن المحادثات التي من المقرر أن تجري في الدوحة بدولة قطر تهدف في الأغلب إلى تمكين الولايات المتحدة من القيام بذلك "بشكل مشرف".

ولكن الكيفية التي قد ترسم بها نهاية العمليات القتالية التي تقودها الولايات المتحدة مستقبل أفغانستان سوف تؤثر أيضاً على أمن الدول المجاورة وما ورائها. وهنا يصبح السؤال الأكثر أهمية هو ما إذا كان مصير أفغانستان، التي أنشئت كمنطقة عازلة بين روسيا القيصرية والهند البريطانية، سوف يكون ــ أو ينبغي له أن يكون ــ مختلفاً عن مصير العراق وليبيا (البلدين اللذين يشكلان خلقاً استعمارياً آخر تدخلت فيه الولايات المتحدة عسكرياً في السنوات الأخيرة).

إن التدخل العسكري الأجنبي قد يؤثر على آلية تغيير النظام، ولكن من الواضح أنه غير قادر على إعادة تأسيس نظام يستند إلى حكومة مركزية. فقد انقسم العراق في كل شيء إلا الاسم إلى مناطق شيعية، وسُنّية، وكردية، ويبدو أن ليبيا تسير باتجاه تقسيم ثلاثي مشابه يقوم على ترتيبات تتفق مع الهيمنة القَبَلية. وفي أفغانستان أيضا، قد يكون التقسيم "الناعم" على غرار ما حدث في العراق أفضل نتيجة ممكنة.

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