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在阿富汗问题上纠结痛苦

纽约——超过17年后,是时候接受阿富汗战争的两大重要事实。首先是,阿富汗政府及其美国和北约盟友无法取得军事胜利。阿富汗军队尽管战斗力有所提升,但还不足以而且永远也不太可能击败塔利班部队。这还不仅仅因为政府军往往缺乏胜利所需的团结和职业精神,而且因为塔利班具有很高的战斗积极性,并且得到阿富汗国内和巴基斯坦在关键资源和庇护所方面的巨大支持。

第二个事实是和谈不太可能取得成功。多年来,谈判从未停止,但外交与战场的现实和趋势永远也不会太过背离。两者都显示很难通过谈判达成协议。

战场局势正在陷入到一个缓慢恶化的僵局。估计约2/3人口居住的地区由政府控制。但塔利班甚至更为激进的团体,包括那些与基地组织和伊斯兰国相关的团体,控制或争夺着该国近半数的土地,并且一再表现出在该国任何地方,包括首都喀布尔,袭击军事和平民目标的能力。

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