Man holding an American flag in snowy mountains.

La elección estadounidense y la economía global

STANFORD – En Estados Unidos se están gestando grandes cambios, en tanto el país se prepara para elegir un nuevo presidente, un tercio del Senado y toda la Cámara de Representantes en noviembre próximo. El resultado tendrá profundas consecuencias para la política económica estadounidense y, por ende, para la economía global.

Tal y como están las cosas, Hillary Clinton sigue siendo la favorita para la nominación demócrata, aunque todavía no logró distanciarse demasiado de su opositor socialista, el senador Bernie Sanders. El multimillonario rimbombante Donald Trump lidera el campo republicano, seguido por el senador provocador de Texas Ted Cruz, el senador Marco Rubio, un conservador tradicional talentoso de Florida y, más atrás, el popular gobernador de Ohio John Kasich y el neurocirujano Ben Carson.

Es imposible saber si estas tendencias tempranas se mantendrán durante el resto de las primarias, que ahora se encaminan hacia el sur y el Medio Oeste. Los medios y los entusiastas de la política en Estados Unidos están obsesionados con las diversas posibilidades. ¿Rubio puede congregar una coalición amplia o Trump ganará la nominación republicana? ¿Una nominación de Trump ayudaría a Clinton a ganar una elección general?

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