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The Pandemic’s Most Treacherous Phase

Sep 9, 2020 Barry Eichengreen

The most dangerous phase of the COVID-19 crisis in the US may actually be now, not last spring. If the economy falters a second time, whether because of inadequate fiscal stimulus or flu season and a second COVID-19 wave, it will not receive the additional monetary and fiscal support that protected it in the spring.

BERKELEY – April marked the most dramatic and, some would say, dangerous phase of the COVID-19 crisis in the United States. Deaths were spiking, bodies were piling up in refrigerated trucks outside hospitals in New York City, and ventilators and personal protective equipment were in desperately short supply. The economy was falling off the proverbial cliff, with unemployment soaring to 14.7%.

Since then, supplies of medical and protective equipment have improved. Doctors are figuring out when to put patients on ventilators and when to take them off. We have recognized the importance of protecting vulnerable populations, including the elderly. The infected are now younger on average, further reducing fatalities. With help from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act, economic activity has stabilized, albeit at lower levels.

Or so we are being told.

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US President-elect Joe Biden may have promised a “return to normalcy,” but the truth is that there is no going back. The world is changing in fundamental ways, and the actions the world takes in the next few years will be critical to lay the groundwork for a sustainable, secure, and prosperous future.

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The COVID Comorbidity Crisis Smart Development
Chris McGrath/Getty Images

The COVID Comorbidity Crisis

Ifeanyi M. Nsofor calls attention to another brewing health crisis among those who have been infected by the coronavirus.

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William Allan Sep 15, 2020

Professor Eichengreen’s reaction to the US’ handling of the pandemic and his predictions on present and future failures and dangers are sound enough but scarcely take us far forward. His major proposal that the government must restore confidence in the independence and integrity of the scientific process is incontestable, but he gives little guidance on how that will be achieved, given the political and health hazards of the coming ‘treacherous’ month. Only a convincing and sweeping Democrat victory in the November election will give any assurance that these policies will be implemented. Their policies aim to establish an effective and equitable healthcare system and to restore bilateral and multilateral relationships, but to implement them, they must overcome the toxic partisan divide that has consumed America under its present leadership.
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眼光 Canadian / China Sep 14, 2020

I wish the USA is control of the virus . Reaction time was slow to fighting the virus . You can tank your wonder white president who blame China for the virus then repeated it is only the flu . If you are smart you will kick this man Trump out if USA . One man who has to much money as usual in you USA you by your way to the job of President . The more people die in USA the better it is for the USA economy is what your leader thinks . I also don't believe a USA election is honest and legal . Maybe corruption does excess . Money 💰 speaks in USA . Yes anyone can be bought. Land of to much freedom .
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眼光 Canadian / China Sep 14, 2020

USA better hurry up and find a vaccine that is safe to use or the virus will be like the 1920 virus that killed millions in USA
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Robert Johnston Sep 14, 2020

Lacking coherent national leadership in the US, and with social media misinformation run amok, we can hardly expect vaccine takeup and effectiveness to be any better than mask use, social distancing and crowd avoidance. Certainly little progress before 2022, while we continue to priortize bars and parties over getting children back to school.
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Kurt Kristensen Sep 13, 2020

The entire world appears to be under attack by a combination of pharmaceutical manufacturers of multiple vaccines and health professionals who have adopted top-down health care models defined by current mainstream medical practices. The former massive international corporate partnership have an enviable business model: They have zero liability and can focus entirely on their bottom line. The latter are somehow unable to accept that, ultimately, a high degree of individual health care and life style responsibility is essential.

It seems irrational to support a total vaccines health care model while denying the validity of many imminent researchers on alternative healthcare. Linus Pauling received a Nobel Prize for his research into mega-doses of Vitamin C and a body of credible research on robust individual immune system has emerged to validate inclusion of fish oil, D3, adaptogenic herbs such as Turmeric/Curcumin, Rhodiola and probiotics to keep gut systems effective, and general inflammation responses healthy and robust.

Increasingly researchers and healthcare writers like Dr. Elizabeth Lipski, Ph.D and her 5th edition of Digestive Wellness present less invasive, less costly and less problematic solutions to the myriad personal health care challenges facing today's parents.

A growing body of research is raising concerns that our life styles and a growing number of mandated, or seriously encouraged, vaccines may not be without risks, and that, perhaps, we should consider leaning towards a broader healthcare policy that respect individual health care responsibility and encourage more research into less draconian measures.

In all fairness, the current response strategies appear to be bankrupting entire countries, closing down millions of small businesses and producing record unemployment among the poorest of our people.

Vaccines have been a blessing for many illnesses over the last 100 years, but it may be time to accept that research is strongly suggesting we need a broader approach, with some elements of common sense.
- Ken Gordon Sep 13, 2020
  
  Linus Pauling received the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in the mid-50s, for work done many, many years before he made his claims about Vitamin C. None of his Vitamin C claims were ever confirmed by testing.
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- Edwin Hoffman Sep 13, 2020
  
  Very well stated, but this is a class war where the shareholders can push vaccines on the lower classes, while they can afford the treatments that actually integrate with the human body. We need to eradicate greed, the real plague on humanity.
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Edwin Hoffman Sep 13, 2020

It’s all an engineered transformation toward a global surveillance dystopia where the planet’s inhabitants become the gene altered intellectual property of pharma and technocrats. The governments and banks who control them have wreaked havoc in the name of Covid-19, as the virus‘ death count fails to gain parity. There’s so much arrogance and greed, those at the top mistake the rest as fools, when it’s clear that there’s a slight debt problem, and a land grab going on. The halls of power, academia, and science have all been compromised. The color red is everywhere, and muted traditional communist colors are in style. The Chinafication of the world is underway, to the central planner’s delight. Technocratic communism failed miserably, and it will again. https://youtu.be/h3gwyHNo7MI
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NF Anderson Sep 12, 2020

Where we are now was easily foreseen in May, just the most likely of scenarios.... And now here we are.
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Emanuel Müller Sep 11, 2020

Multiple death occur even with the safest vaccines, for example by anaphylaxis. The point is to reach an acceptable level of safety, e.g. less than 1 death per 10 thousand vaccinations. Of course, taking a vaccine as a result always is akin to playing russian roulette: there will be artificially provoked deaths occurring.
On the other hand, not taking a vaccine, puts the means to protect oneself in one's own hands, which doesn't work with children much and indirectly doesn't work with adults in contact with children much either and so on. The story is entirely different for diseases that can't harm children of course.
As a result what is needed are society akin to spheres of life, as in the case of China, and could soon be the case in the West if it adopts socialism with Chinese characteristics with Western characteristics or SCCWWC.
- carl.cargill Sep 13, 2020
  
  I wonder what the chance of contracting the disease that the vaccine is supposed to counter is. If it is less than 1 in 10,000, then the vaccine is a safe bet. I'm old enough to remember my parents sitting by my bed when I got summer colds because they were terrified of the possibility of polio. We got Sabin and Salk as soon as they were available - I also remember my classmates in grade school who wore leg braces because the vaccine came too late for them.
  - Emanuel Müller Sep 13, 2020
    
    It is really impressive to read testimonies from the polio vaccine introduction period.
    It's like reading about how dinosaurs were roaming freely across the world, your generation must have felt a deep gratitude toward natural sciences as you could see the contrast between the pre and post polio vaccine world.
    On the CDC website they write "Although allergic reactions are a common concern for vaccine providers, these reactions are uncommon and anaphylaxis following vaccines is rare, occurring at a rate of approximately one per million doses for many vaccines (5)."
    - carl.cargill Sep 13, 2020
      
      Amazing. Your sarcasm sound just like my 14 year old daughter's comments. But at least she gets around to responding to my question. I take no issue with vaccines. I merely point out that people who worry about them often forget the prophylactic benefits they confer while fearing the vaccine itself. The vaccine (and dangers) aren't the problem. The disease is.
      - Emanuel Müller Sep 13, 2020
        
        It wasn't sarcasm, but I think I misunderstood your question.
        So I understand that you mean that in the case of vaccines using inactivated pathogens, if the chances are only one in ten thousand that the pathogen mutates back to its active form and therefore causes the disease in the unlucky inoculated person, that is an acceptable amount of collateral damage if the rest of the persons receiving the vaccines are now protected from contracting that disease.
        What I was referring to is anaphylaxis, an allergic reaction not directly related to the disease that the vaccine is supposed to prevent.
        I don't know that there is a level of sacrifice of a minority for the sake of a majority that would be objectively justifiable.
        
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Petey Bee Sep 11, 2020

Gotta love the title.

Not mentioned are the often irrational back-to-school policies now being implemented. Will see about primary/secondary schools soon. Remarkably, the college situation is not playing out out as badly as it could have. A surprising number of colleges had initial outbreaks and then got them knocked down, by doing what the rest of the country refuses, namely, contact tracing and more aggressive efforts to deal with asymptomatics.

On the economic front, the situation has revealed that many of our jobs, at least white collar ones, are in very large part just fluff. An 8 hour day at the office is replaced by a couple of 20 minute phone/video calls and maybe an hour of emails, for nearly half a year now, and everything functions just fine. That might be the biggest discovery for many, many people. Hopefully we do something with it.
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眼光 Canadian / China Sep 10, 2020

What the virus is in USA . It is this White surpemecy man Trump
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眼光 Canadian / China Sep 10, 2020

Only the rich survive in a pandemic like this one. 190000 dead . Mostly poor people . Not the rich America . Trump could care less about the poor people of USA .
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Ben Leet Sep 10, 2020

The "excessive deaths" count is 38% above the official count, says an article at the NYTimes in the "corona virus" web page section. The official count is 180,000, the true count 248,000, in other words. The U.S. deaths per million is 590, ranking 8th in all nations, and with 4% of world population we created 21.5% of world's deaths (see Worldometer corona virus page). Vietnam has 0.4 deaths per million, with about a third the population of the U.S., Japan has 11, Australia 31, Germany 112. Since April 26 when the US and the European Union each had about 890,000 cases, for every one more in the EU the US has added 5.7 more, so now EU has 1.8 million, the US has 6.5 million. (Our World in Data) The US is not serious about stopping the spread. Biden at least is talking about a large infrastructure program to absorb much of the unemployment that seems inevitable.
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眼光 Canadian / China Sep 10, 2020

USA Trump no virus
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