Un lento crecimiento para las tasas de interés de Estados Unidos

LONDRES – Como es habitual, la nueva declaración de políticas de la Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos se analizará con gran detalle en los próximos días, debido en gran medida a que los inversionistas estarán buscando orientación sobre cuándo y con qué rapidez se elevarán las tasas de interés. Es interesante que no se pida "paciencia" y que la Reserva Federal haya señalado que es posible que ya en junio suba su índice de referencia. De todos modos, el texto en particular es mucho menos elocuente que el contexto en que se da a conocer el comunicado.

De hecho, la incertidumbre sobre la política monetaria en los Estados Unidos ha sido el motor principal de la volatilidad de los mercados financieros este año. Después de todo, el efecto potencial de las alzas de las tasas de interés en la curva de rendimiento de EE.UU. tiene un impacto importante en la fijación de precios de todos los activos globales.

Pero tres factores sugieren que los inversionistas están poniendo demasiado énfasis sobre el riesgo de que la curva se revalúe. En primer lugar, es probable que los acontecimientos económicos hagan que la Fed adopte una actitud cautelosa en cuanto a elevar las tasas de interés. Segundo, incluso si la Fed actúa rápidamente, el apetito de los inversionistas por los ingresos anclará los rendimientos. En tercer lugar, las características técnicas del mercado asegurarán una fuerte demanda de bonos del Tesoro estadounidense.

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