Ralentissement de la croissance des taux d'intérêt américains

LONDRES – Comme le veut la coutume, la nouvelle déclaration de principe de la Réserve fédérale américaine sera analysée dans ses moindres détails dans les jours à venir : les investisseurs y cherchent en effet des indices sur le moment et la vitesse d'une augmentation des taux d'intérêt. Fait remarquable, le mot « patient » n'apparaît pas et la Fed a signalé être à même de relever son taux directeur dès le mois de juin. Mais le texte de cette déclaration est loin d'être aussi évocateur que le contexte qui entoure sa publication.

En fait, l'incertitude au sujet de la politique monétaire des États-Unis a été cette année le premier facteur d'instabilité des marchés financiers. Après tout, l'incidence potentielle des hausses de taux d'intérêt sur la courbe des taux américains a un impact majeur sur le prix de tous les actifs mondiaux.

Mais trois facteurs suggèrent que les investisseurs surévaluent le risque d'une révision des tarifs de cette courbe. Tout d'abord, les développements économiques vont probablement conduire la Fed à se montrer prudente en matière d'augmentation des taux d'intérêt. Ensuite, même si la Fed agit rapidement, l'appétit des investisseurs pour les bénéfices va fixer les rendements. Enfin, les caractéristiques techniques du marché vont garantir une forte demande en bons du Trésor américain.

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