Одномоторная Глобальная Экономика

ТОКИО – Мировая экономика - как реактивный самолет, которому нужно, чтобы все его двигатели были действующими для взлета и держали его подальше от облаков и штормов. К сожалению, только один из четырех двигателей работает как следует: Англосфера (Соединенные Штаты и его ближайший кузен, Соединенное Королевство).

Второй двигатель - еврозона - сейчас остановился, после анемического рестарта 2008 года. В самом деле, Европа находится в одном шаге от прямой дефляции и очередного приступа рецессии. Точно так же, третий двигатель, Япония, находится  на исходе топлива, после года финансового и денежно-кредитного стимулирования. И развивающиеся рынки (четвертый двигатель) резко замедляются, как десятилетний мировой попутный ветер - быстрый рост Китая, политика нулевой процентной ставки и количественного смягчения со стороны Федеральной Резервной Системы США, и товарный супер-оборот - становятся встречным ветром.

Так что вопрос, состоит в том, как долго мировая экономика сможет оставаться в воздухе на одном двигателе. Слабость в остальных странах мира предполагает укрепление доллара, которое неизменно ослабит рост США. Чем глубже спад в других странах, и чем выше рост доллара, тем меньше США смогут отделиться от временного депрессивного расстройства в остальных местах, даже если внутренний спрос кажется надежным.

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