单引擎全球经济

东京—全球经济就像是一架喷气式客机,需要所有引擎都能正常运转才能冲破云霄。不幸的是,这架飞机的四个引擎中只有一个能够正常运转:盎格鲁文化圈(美国及其近亲英国)。

第二个引擎——欧元区在2008年危机后迟迟无法启动。事实上,欧洲距离通货紧缩和新一轮衰退只有一步之遥。类似地,第三个引擎——日本在一年的财政和货币刺激后也失去了动力。而新兴市场(第四个引擎)因为长达十年的全球顺风——中国高速增长、美联储的零政策利率和量化宽松以及商品超级周期——转为逆风而迅速减速。

因此,问题在于全球经济是否能依靠单引擎维持、能维持多久。世界其余部分的疲软意味着强势美元,而强势美元难免削弱美国的增长。其他国家减速越深、美元升值越高,美国就越是无法摆脱其他地区的恐惧和焦虑,即使其内需看上去相当强健。

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