Obama, deuxième mandat

DENVER – C’est fini. Après une campagne électorale d’un an qui a coûté entre 2,5 et 6 milliards de dollars (les estimations varient fortement), le président démocrate Barack Obama a remporté un deuxième mandat de quatre ans. Les résultats de quarante-neuf États ont été connus la nuit même de l’élection, contrairement à la Florid dont les résultats du scrutin ont tardé pour la deuxième fois en quatre élections présidentielles. Obama est aujourd’hui en bonne position pour définir le rôle des Etats-Unis dans le système international pour les années à venir.

Les deuxièmes mandats peuvent se révéler productifs en matière de politique étrangère, en grande partie parce que les présidents américains ne peuvent briguer un troisième mandat. George W. Bush a par exemple cherché à corriger les erreurs de son premier mandat au cours du second (l’équipe présidentielle de ce second mandat a eu fort à faire).

Au cours de leur deuxième mandat, les présidents tendent à faire face aux situations compliquées par le traditionnel pragmatisme américain, ce qu’ils ne peuvent faire lors du premier mandat en raison de la priorité donnée à leur réélection. La célèbre remarque d’Obama captée par un micro ouvert disant qu’il disposerait de plus de flexibilité après son élection a pu choquer certains, mais pour les analystes de politique étrangère, il ne faisait qu’énoncer l’évidence. La difficulté pour le président est maintenant d’utiliser rapidement cette nouvelle liberté d’action, avant qu’il ne soit perçu comme un canard boiteux, ou lame duck (ce qui ne manquera pas de se produire).

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