Haushaltsprobleme und Haushaltstorheiten

BERKELEY – Wohin steuert Amerikas Wirtschaft im Jahr 2013? Wird die Erholung weiterhin frustrierend langsam ausfallen? Oder wird sie sich beschleunigen, weil der Immobiliensektor wiederauflebt, die Banken ihre Kreditvergabe ausweiten, sich die Bilanzen der Haushalte verbessern und die Budgets der staatlichen und lokalen Regierungen gestärkt werden?

Bei einer Verringerung des wirtschaftlichen Gegenwinds erscheinen die Aussichten der Vereinigten Staaten auf besseres BIP-Wachstum vielversprechend. Aber ebenso besteht ein signifikantes Risiko, dass eine große und unnötige Dosis haushaltspolitischer Sparmaßnahmen die Nachfrage dämpft, das Vertrauen unterminiert und die Wirtschaft zurück in die Rezession schickt.

Seit 2010 betrug das jährliche BIP-Wachstum durchschnittlich etwa 2,1%, und damit weniger als die Hälfte desjenigen der Erholungen nach den vorherigen US-Rezessionen der letzten 60 Jahre. Langsames BIP-Wachstum bedeutet auch langsames Beschäftigungswachstum. Die Arbeitslosenrate ist weiterhin etwa zwei Prozentpunkte höher als diejenige, die von den meisten Ökonomen als mit einer vollständigen Erholung im Einklang stehend betrachtet wird, und die Erwerbsquote bewegt sich in der Nähe historischer Tiefststände. Die Wirtschaft bleibt immer noch weit hinter ihrem Potenzial zurück: Das BIP liegt etwa 6% unter dem Wert, den es bei einer Produktion bei voller Kapazität ohne höhere Inflation erreichen könnte.

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