Morgue Testing the US Economy
Owing to the lack of testing capacity, there is no way to know for sure just how bad the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States has become as a result of this summer's "Sunbelt second wave." But judging by the latest data on morbidity and unemployment-insurance claims, no one should bet on economic recovery in the third quarter.
BERKELEY – US national income and output in the first quarter of 2020 was 1.25% below what it had been in the fourth quarter of 2019, but still 9.5% above what it would be by the second quarter of this year. Now that US national income has plunged 12% below what it was at the start of the year, what should we expect for the third quarter?