Skydive plane freefall risk USAJFKSWCS/Flickr

Altes neues Finanzrisiko

WASHINGTON, DC – Das bedeutendste Finanzrisiko, mit dem die Vereinigten Staaten heute konfrontiert sind, ähnelt frappierend jener Entwicklung, die in den Jahren 2007-2008 so enorme Probleme verursachte: Großbanken, die in ihren Bilanzen einen zu hohen Anteil an Fremdkapital und ein zu geringes Maß an Eigenkapital aufweisen. Uneinheitliche weltweite Regulierungen – ganz zu schweigen von offenbar schlafenden Regulierungsbehörden – verschärfen diese strukturelle Schwachstelle noch weiter.

Wir haben diesen Film bereits gesehen und er nahm ein schlechtes Ende. Das nächste Mal könnten wir eine noch schlimmere Horror-Vorstellung erleben.

Jeder Boom gestaltet sich anders, aber jeder größeren Finanzkrise liegt das gleiche Problem zugrunde: wichtige Banken geraten in Schwierigkeiten und wanken am Rande des Zusammenbruchs. Eine Störung im Zentrum eines Bankensystems führt zu Kreditverknappung mit höchst negativen Auswirkungen auf die Realwirtschaft. In unserer modernen Welt, in der das Finanzsystem dicht mit der gesamten Wirtschaft verwoben ist,  können die Folgen besonders schwerwiegend sein – wie wir in den Jahren 2008 und 2009 erfahren haben.

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