La mente militar árabe

Un aspecto clave para ganar cualquier guerra es definir las metas. Esto es particularmente cierto en el caso de la actual contienda en Gaza y Líbano. Al tratar de hacer demasiado –o creer que se puede lograr más de lo posible—el resultado puede ser el fracaso y ciertamente será la desilusión.

En este caso el error es creer que Israel puede destruir a Jezbolá o eliminarlo como entidad política y militar. Decir lo contrario sería caer en el juego de Jezbolá, Siria e Irán, que quieren definir su victoria como la supervivencia de Jezbolá.

Definir la victoria como la simple supervivencia es un patrón frecuentemente típico de la política árabe (e iraní) y es al mismo tiempo desastroso y sensato. Es desastroso porque se arriesga a la derrota al atacar a fuerzas superiores: la Guerra de los Seis Días de 1967, el desafío de Saddam Hussein a los Estados Unidos y su ataque contra Irán, las batallas eternas de Yaser Arafat en las que siempre salía derrotado y así sucesivamente. El lado árabe sufre enormes pérdidas humanas y materiales, como está sucediendo de nuevo con Líbano y los palestinos.

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