理解阿拉伯的军事思想

取得战争胜利的一个关键因素就是确定目标。在加沙和黎巴嫩的战争中尤为如此。如果试图做得太多——或者相信可以取得不可能的结果——那么很可能会以失败告终而且可肯定会失望而归。在加沙和黎巴嫩的战争中,人们错误地认为以色列可以摧毁黎巴嫩真主党或消灭这个政治及军事实体。而与此相对的则是黎巴嫩真主党、叙利亚和伊朗,他们则将胜利的标志定为黎巴嫩真主党的继续存在。

仅仅将存在作为胜利的标准,这在阿拉伯(及伊朗)政治中是很典型的,这既具有灾难性又很理智。其灾难性在于它可能因为对大国宣战后招致失败:1967年的六日战争(six day war),萨达姆·侯赛因对美国的挑战及其对伊朗的进攻,亚西尔·阿拉法特的屡败屡战,等等。阿拉伯世界因此遭受了巨大的人员和财产损失,而现在这又发生在黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦身上。

但现实中以及军事上的失败也可以被视为政治上的胜利。阿拉伯人从未“输”过,因为他们从未投降过,从未正式放弃过任何东西。遭受失败的领导人,未能取胜的组织都成为了英雄,因为他们敢于向敌人宣战还没有被摧毁。他们所持的重要观点是,虽然受创单却得以复仇,他们表现出男人的真正精神,没有屈服,并生存了下来。

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