理解阿拉伯的军事思想

取得战争胜利的一个关键因素就是确定目标。在加沙和黎巴嫩的战争中尤为如此。如果试图做得太多——或者相信可以取得不可能的结果——那么很可能会以失败告终而且可肯定会失望而归。在加沙和黎巴嫩的战争中,人们错误地认为以色列可以摧毁黎巴嫩真主党或消灭这个政治及军事实体。而与此相对的则是黎巴嫩真主党、叙利亚和伊朗,他们则将胜利的标志定为黎巴嫩真主党的继续存在。

仅仅将存在作为胜利的标准,这在阿拉伯(及伊朗)政治中是很典型的,这既具有灾难性又很理智。其灾难性在于它可能因为对大国宣战后招致失败:1967年的六日战争(six day war),萨达姆·侯赛因对美国的挑战及其对伊朗的进攻,亚西尔·阿拉法特的屡败屡战,等等。阿拉伯世界因此遭受了巨大的人员和财产损失,而现在这又发生在黎巴嫩和巴勒斯坦身上。

但现实中以及军事上的失败也可以被视为政治上的胜利。阿拉伯人从未“输”过,因为他们从未投降过,从未正式放弃过任何东西。遭受失败的领导人,未能取胜的组织都成为了英雄,因为他们敢于向敌人宣战还没有被摧毁。他们所持的重要观点是,虽然受创单却得以复仇,他们表现出男人的真正精神,没有屈服,并生存了下来。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/FAKwPkN/zh;
  1. Television sets showing a news report on Xi Jinping's speech Anthony Wallace/Getty Images

    Empowering China’s New Miracle Workers

    China’s success in the next five years will depend largely on how well the government manages the tensions underlying its complex agenda. In particular, China’s leaders will need to balance a muscular Communist Party, setting standards and protecting the public interest, with an empowered market, driving the economy into the future.

  2. United States Supreme Court Hisham Ibrahim/Getty Images

    The Sovereignty that Really Matters

    The preference of some countries to isolate themselves within their borders is anachronistic and self-defeating, but it would be a serious mistake for others, fearing contagion, to respond by imposing strict isolation. Even in states that have succumbed to reductionist discourses, much of the population has not.

  3.  The price of Euro and US dollars Daniel Leal Olivas/Getty Images

    Resurrecting Creditor Adjustment

    When the Bretton Woods Agreement was hashed out in 1944, it was agreed that countries with current-account deficits should be able to limit temporarily purchases of goods from countries running surpluses. In the ensuing 73 years, the so-called "scarce-currency clause" has been largely forgotten; but it may be time to bring it back.

  4. Leaders of the Russian Revolution in Red Square Keystone France/Getty Images

    Trump’s Republican Collaborators

    Republican leaders have a choice: they can either continue to collaborate with President Donald Trump, thereby courting disaster, or they can renounce him, finally putting their country’s democracy ahead of loyalty to their party tribe. They are hardly the first politicians to face such a decision.

  5. Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Emmanuel Macron John Thys/Getty Images

    How Money Could Unblock the Brexit Talks

    With talks on the UK's withdrawal from the EU stalled, negotiators should shift to the temporary “transition” Prime Minister Theresa May officially requested last month. Above all, the negotiators should focus immediately on the British budget contributions that will be required to make an orderly transition possible.

  6. Ksenia Sobchak Mladlen Antonov/Getty Images

    Is Vladimir Putin Losing His Grip?

    In recent decades, as President Vladimir Putin has entrenched his authority, Russia has seemed to be moving backward socially and economically. But while the Kremlin knows that it must reverse this trajectory, genuine reform would be incompatible with the kleptocratic character of Putin’s regime.

  7. Right-wing parties hold conference Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

    Rage Against the Elites

    • With the advantage of hindsight, four recent books bring to bear diverse perspectives on the West’s current populist moment. 
    • Taken together, they help us to understand what that moment is and how it arrived, while reminding us that history is contingent, not inevitable


    Global Bookmark

    Distinguished thinkers review the world’s most important new books on politics, economics, and international affairs.

  8. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin Bill Clark/Getty Images

    Don’t Bank on Bankruptcy for Banks

    As a part of their efforts to roll back the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, congressional Republicans have approved a measure that would have courts, rather than regulators, oversee megabank bankruptcies. It is now up to the Trump administration to decide if it wants to set the stage for a repeat of the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008.