Comment faire bouger la Chine

DENVER – « La folie », aurait dit Albert Einstein, « consiste à se comporter de la même manière et s’attendre à un résultat différent ». Pour ceux qui raillent la possibilité de voir un jour la Chine se décider à affronter fermement son fâcheux voisin nord-coréen, les résultats de la visite du secrétaire d’État américain John Kerry à Beijing ne seront que trop prévisibles.

Mais pour ceux qui observent attentivement le paysage politique interne de la Chine, en constante évolution, de nombreux développements justifient largement la visite de Kerry. En fait, si l’administration Obama peut être critiquée pour sa gestion de la dernière « crise » nord-coréenne, ce n’est pas pour avoir trop compté sur la Chine, mais au contraire pour l’avoir négligée.

Les théories sur l’attitude de la Chine envers la Corée du Nord se réduisent souvent à l’idée que la principale crainte du pays serait, si la Corée du Nord s’effondrait, un afflux massif de réfugiés qui pourrait entraîner une rupture du fragile tissu ethnique des provinces du Nord-Est de la Chine. Le problème est que si certains Chinois s’inquiètent bien de la question des réfugiés, la Chine ne peut être perçue comme une entité unique avec un point de vue exclusif sur une quelconque question ; comme tout État moderne complexe, la Chine présente de nombreux points de vue différents sur de nombreuses questions.

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