如何影响中国

丹佛——阿尔伯特·爱因斯坦说过,“一遍遍重复同样的事,却期待出现不同的结果就叫精神错乱。”在一直认为中国不可能果断处置麻烦不断的邻国朝鲜的人看来,美国国国务卿约翰·克里最近北京之行的结果非常容易预见。

但在用心研究中国国内变幻莫测的政治局势的人看来,克里的访问却很有必要。事实上,如果说奥巴马政府理应为其对最新朝鲜“危机”的处理方式而受到批评,那么主要问题并不是对中国过于依赖,而是过分地忽视中国。

有关中国对朝态度的理论往往推崇这样的观点,即中国最害怕朝鲜一旦崩溃,大量朝鲜难民涌入会打破东北三省微妙的种族平衡。关键在于虽然有些中国人的确担心难民问题,但就像任何复杂的现代国家一样,“中国”并不是一个有统一见解的集合体,而是在很多问题上观点都不尽相同。

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