Une vérité non conventionnelle

NEW YORK – Qui aurait cru que six ans après la crise financière mondiale, les économies les plus avancées seraient encore en train de nager dans une soupe de sigles (ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR et U-FX Int) de politiques monétaires non conventionnelles ? Aucune banque centrale n'avait examiné chacune de ces mesures avant 2008 (politique de taux d'intérêt à taux zéro, assouplissement quantitatif, assouplissement du crédit, forward guidance, taux de dépôt à terme négatif, interventions de change illimitées, respectivement). Aujourd'hui, elles sont une référence incontournable dans la boîte à outils des décideurs.

En effet, il y a à peine dix-huit mois de cela, la Banque centrale européenne a adopté sa propre version de la FG, est passée à la ZIRP, puis a adopté le CE, avant de se décider à essayer le NDR. En janvier elle a complètement adopté le QE. En effet à l'heure actuelle la Fed, la Banque d'Angleterre, la Banque du Japon, la BCE et des banques centrales de plus petites économies avancées, comme la Banque Nationale Suisse, comptent toutes sur ces politiques non conventionnelles.

Une des conséquences de cet activisme politique monétaire mondial a été une révolte parmi les pseudo-économistes et les piètres analystes du marché ces dernières années. Cette troupe d'économistes « autrichiens », de monétaristes radicaux, de partisans de l'étalon or et de fanatiques du Bitcoin a averti à plusieurs reprises qu'une telle une augmentation massive des liquidités mondiales risquait de conduire à l'hyperinflation, à l'effondrement du dollar américain, aux prix exorbitants de l'or et à la l'éventuelle disparition des monnaies fiduciaires aux mains de leurs homologues en crypto-devises numériques.

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