Renminbi

中国的高波动增长

米兰—关于中国经济前景的不确定性正在搅乱全球市场——如此多如此难以回答的问题。事实上,中国的轨迹已经几乎不可能预测,因为其决策者给出的信号令人困惑甚至互相冲突。

在实体经济中,拜外部需求萎靡所赐,出口驱动的可贸易部门正在萎缩。面对欧洲和日本的缓慢增长,美国的平庸增长,以及发展中国家的诸多严峻挑战(除了印度),中国贸易引擎失去了大部分动力。

但是,与此同时,内需的增加保持着中国相对较高的增长率——而与此同时,家庭债务并未大幅增加。随着私人消费的扩张,服务业兴旺发达,为许多人带来了就业岗位。这是健康的经济再平衡的明证。

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