O futuro da Europa a duas velocidades

PARIS – Durante três anos, a crise do euro ameaçou não só desfazer a zona euro, mas também derrubar toda a União Europeia. Embora a pressão dos mercados financeiros esteja mais moderada, por agora, uma resolução a longo prazo para a crise continua a ser uma prioridade existencial para a UE.

Na actual economia mundial altamente competitiva, os países europeus relativamente pequenos, o envelhecimento das populações e o endividamento excessivo, combinado com uma falta de recursos energéticos e investimento insuficiente na investigação e desenvolvimento, significam que os seus elevados padrões de vida e os estados-providência sociais generosos estão em perigo. Individualmente, não podem competir com os mercados emergentes; precisam de uma UE forte para enfrentarem os desafios colocados pela globalização.

Mas a arquitetura da zona euro - em que a política monetária é centralizada, mas as políticas orçamentais e económicas são da responsabilidade de governos individuais - não é viável a longo prazo. Embora os líderes da Europa tenham feito alguns progressos na reforma institucional, as medidas tomadas até agora não irão levar a uma convergência real das políticas económicas e orçamentais ou à verdadeira união económica. Como resultado, eles não conseguirão tranquilizar os mercados financeiros.

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