« Questions à propos de l’Iran »

La Corée du Nord vient de signer le 13 février un accord par lequel elle renonce à son programme nucléaire militaire. C’est un très grand succès de la communauté internationale. Certes la situation intérieure de ce pays et l’urgence de ses besoins énergétiques font que d’une certaine manière il était en quelque sorte achetable. Mais cela n’en démontre pas moins les vertus et l’efficacité possible de la diplomatie. Voilà qui conduit à s’interroger à nouveau sur le cas de l’Iran.

Le Président de la République français a exprimé récemment une réflexion alambiquée qui laissait penser qu’il ne fallait pas surestimer la gravité de l’accès de l’Iran à l’arme nucléaire. Je ne partage pas ce point de vue. L’éventuelle détention d’armes nucléaires par l’Iran serait d’une immense gravité. S’il reste vrai que la détention n’est pas l’emploi, et qu’il y a plus de quinze ans maintenant que l’on a atteint le nombre de huit puissances détentrices de ces armes sans que jamais elles n’aient été employées depuis 1945, il est tout aussi vrai que l’arrivée de l’Iran au rang de neuvième puissance nucléaire représenterait un redoutable bouleversement régional et mondial, aggraverait dangereusement craintes et méfiances et changerait radicalement les visions et les politiques de la communauté internationale et d’Israël pour la garantie de la sécurité de cet Etat.

Alors que faire ? A première vue l’emploi de la force n’est guère possible. Une frappe nucléaire aurait des conséquences incalculables, le monde arabe ayant dans un tel cas une vocation à se déclarer solidaire. On serait en pleine traduction militaire du choc des civilisations. Une attaque conventionnelle n’est guère plus envisageable, Israël n’ayant pas de frontière commune et la quasi-totalité de l’armée américaine étant pour une durée indéterminée embourbée en Afghanistan et en Irak.

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