Prueba mediante crisis

VARSOVIA – Episodios como la actual crisis financiera perturban gravemente el crecimiento económico, pero la cuestión que debemos formularnos se refiere a las repercusiones de dichos episodios en el desarrollo a largo plazo y resulta extraño que haya despertado tan poco interés.

Las teorías tradicionales sobre el crecimiento se centran en fuerzas sistemáticas –por ejemplo, la acumulación de capital, el empleo y el cambio técnico– que, por definición, actúan todo el tiempo, aunque con diversos grados de intensidad. Algunas teorías examinan también factores institucionales subyacentes como los derechos de propiedad, la competencia en los mercados, las cargas impositivas y reglamentadoras y el nivel de Estado de derecho.

Otra corriente de investigación aborda la gestión de las crisis, pero sin examinar las repercusiones en el crecimiento a largo plazo. En el caso de una crisis financiera, suele incluir la relajación fiscal y monetaria, además de las operaciones de rescate en el caso de grandes entidades financieras. La actitud dominante en materia de gestión de las crisis ha sido a corto plazo y, como ha quedado ampliamente demostrado durante esta última crisis, se basa en lo que yo llamo la doctrina autojustificativa de la intervención.

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