¿Podrán los acuerdos comerciales poner fin a la manipulación de las divisas?

WASHINGTON, DC – No se puede negar que el comercio y los tipos de cambio están estrechamente vinculados, pero, ¿quiere eso decir que se deban incluir los acuerdos internacionales sobre el comercio en las políticas nacionales que afectan a los valores de las divisas?

Algunos economistas así lo creen, desde luego. Simon Johnson, por ejemplo, ha sostenido recientemente que se deben utilizar los acuerdos megarregionales, como el Acuerdo de Asociación Transpacífico, para disuadir a los países de intervenir en el mercado de divisas a fin de impedir la apreciación de los tipos de cambio; Fred Bergsten ha expuesto un  argumento similar, pero el Tesoro de los Estados Unidos y la Oficina de su Representante Comercial siguen sosteniendo que se deben mantener las cuestiones macroeconómicas separadas de las negociaciones sobre el comercio.

Así las cosas, las instituciones internacionales pertinentes –la Organización Mundial del Comercio y el Fondo Monetario Internacional– no están organizadas para reaccionar por sí solas eficazmente ante la posible manipulación de las divisas. La inclusión de las políticas macroeconómicas que afectan a los tipos de cambio en las negociaciones sobre el comercio requeriría que la OMC adquiriera la capacidad técnica (y el mandato) para analizar y juzgar las políticas nacionales pertinentes o que el FMI participara en los mecanismos de solución de controversias que acompañan a los tratados sobre el comercio.

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