可贸易繁荣

米兰—全球经济正在经历增长大挑战。许多发达国家试图在全球经济减速的环境下重振可持续发展。但各国所面临的挑战各不相同。特别是,各国可贸易和不可贸易部门存在重要不同。

在不可贸易部门(占发达国家经济的60—70%),主要增长拖累因素是疲软的需求(比如金融危机后的美国)以及因结构性和竞争阻碍了生产率发展(如日本)。在可贸易部门,增长取决于一国相对于收入和竞争力的生产率。在全球层面,可贸易部门也存在总需求不足的问题。

诺贝尔经济学奖罗伯特·索洛(Robert Solow)指出,增长有三个来源:工作人口、资本投资和技术进步。年轻人口的增加有助于维持财政平衡和保证代际平等,但其本身并不能增加收入。另一方面,经济增长低于工作人口增加总量以及技术变迁中的劳动力节约因素会增加失业。

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