Ship port trade horizon TPP US Department of Agriculture/Flickr

¿Ayudará el TPP a Latinoamérica?

SANTIAGO – El Fondo Monetario Internacional acaba de reducir sus previsiones sobre el crecimiento económico de América Latina por quinto año consecutivo, y en consecuencia los países de la región buscan formas de reanimar la inversión y aumentar su productividad. Para esto, deberían inspirarse en el rápido crecimiento de Asia, según afirman los partidarios del Acuerdo Transpacífico de Cooperación Económica (TPP según su sigla en inglés), el propuesto mega acuerdo de comercio internacional que uniría a 12 países de la cuenca del Pacifico. ¿Es útil esta recomendación?

Si se lleva a cabo de manera correcta, el TPP podría ayudar a que México, Perú y Chile - los miembros latinoamericanos del acuerdo - dieran el salto hacia exportaciones de alta productividad basadas en la innovación. Sin embargo, para lograr este objetivo sería necesario que el TPP no impidiera sino que fomentara el flujo de conocimientos dentro de la cuenca del Pacífico. Desgraciadamente, Estados Unidos insiste en una serie de normas sobre la propiedad intelectual que sirven los intereses de empresas de su nación, pero no contribuyen mayormente a la creación de un ambiente propicio para la innovación en otros países del TPP. Esto debe cambiar - y dentro de poco tiempo - para que los años de conversaciones concluyan con éxito.

Los retos de crecimiento que enfrentan los tres países latinoamericanos del TPP son muy diferentes. En los últimos veinte años, México ha logrado diversificar su base de exportaciones, y hoy es un importante proveedor de productos industriales a Estados Unidos y Canadá. Lo malo es que las perspectivas de crecimiento para México han pasado a estar íntimamente ligadas a las de su poderoso vecino del norte. Lo bueno es que en la actualidad Estados Unidos está creciendo con mayor rapidez que cualquier otra economía industrializada de importancia, de modo que según el FMI, México puede esperar unos dos años de aceleración de su crecimiento económico.

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