Man pushing large cargo.

令人担心的TPP政治

东京—本月,12个太平洋两岸的国家完成了历史性的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)贸易协定。TPP的范围十分广泛。如果获得批准并实施,它将给环太平洋贸易和资本流带来极大的推动。事实上,它将有助于正在发生的国际秩序变迁。不幸的是,是否能够实现还远未可知。

构成TPP基础的贸易和金融经济学十分简单,早在十九世纪就由英国政治经济学家大卫·李嘉图阐述得一清二楚。贸易和投资自由化让各国最大程度地利用其比较优势,因此能够带来净经济收益,尽管它可能不利于之前从关税保护中获益的特殊利益群体。

但贸易自由化的政治学——即各国怎样接受自由贸易——要复杂得多,这主要是因为受到冲击的特殊利益集团从中作梗。对他们来说,贸易自由化的总体经济利益不值一提,如果他们自身的狭隘利益受到侵蚀的话。即使这些群体规模相对较小,但在于贸易自由化对抗的过程中,他们表现出极强的纪律和团结,这能大大增加他们的政治影响力——特别是如果某权势政治人物站在他们这一边的话。

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