Man pushing large cargo.

令人担心的TPP政治

东京—本月,12个太平洋两岸的国家完成了历史性的跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)贸易协定。TPP的范围十分广泛。如果获得批准并实施,它将给环太平洋贸易和资本流带来极大的推动。事实上,它将有助于正在发生的国际秩序变迁。不幸的是,是否能够实现还远未可知。

构成TPP基础的贸易和金融经济学十分简单,早在十九世纪就由英国政治经济学家大卫·李嘉图阐述得一清二楚。贸易和投资自由化让各国最大程度地利用其比较优势,因此能够带来净经济收益,尽管它可能不利于之前从关税保护中获益的特殊利益群体。

但贸易自由化的政治学——即各国怎样接受自由贸易——要复杂得多,这主要是因为受到冲击的特殊利益集团从中作梗。对他们来说,贸易自由化的总体经济利益不值一提,如果他们自身的狭隘利益受到侵蚀的话。即使这些群体规模相对较小,但在于贸易自由化对抗的过程中,他们表现出极强的纪律和团结,这能大大增加他们的政治影响力——特别是如果某权势政治人物站在他们这一边的话。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/WSOEc1y/zh;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.