Margaret Scott

Toxische Tests

CAMBRIDGE, MASS.: Die US-Regierung hat zehn der größten Banken des Landes die Rückzahlung von etwa 70 Milliarden Dollar gestattet, die diese im vergangenen Herbst als Kapitalspritze erhalten hatten. Die Entscheidung wurde getroffen, nachdem die Banken die vom Finanzministerium verlangten so genannten „Stresstests“ zur Messung ihrer finanziellen Lebensfähigkeit bestanden hatten und einige von ihnen erfolgreich jenes zusätzliche Kapital aufbrachten, das sie laut diesen Tests brauchten.

Viele Menschen gehen aufgrund dieser Folge von Ereignissen nun davon aus, dass die US-Banken – die sowohl für die US-Wirtschaft als auch für die Weltwirtschaft von entscheidender Bedeutung sind – ihre Schwierigkeiten bewältigt haben. Dies jedoch ist eine schwere Fehleinschätzung.

Obwohl mit den US-Stresstests gar nicht versucht wurde, die Verluste einzuschätzen, die die Banken mit vielen der im Zentrum der Finanzkrise stehenden „toxischen Vermögenswerte“ erlitten haben, findet das US-Modell immer mehr Anklang. Bei einem Treffen in diesem Monat vereinbarten die Finanzminister der G8, dem Vorbild der USA zu folgen und ihre Banken Stresstests zu unterziehen. Doch damit die Ergebnisse derartiger Tests zuverlässig sind, sollten sie den grundlegenden Fehler der US-Tests vermeiden.

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