Demasiado europeos para quebrar

BERLÍN – Entre los banqueros de inversiones hay una especulación renovada sobre la posibilidad de que un país salga –o se vea obligado a salir—de la Unión Monetaria Europea (UME). Las agencias de calificación han restado puntos a Portugal, Grecia y España debido a las perspectivas desfavorables de su crecimiento económico y la debilidad de sus finanzas públicas. A Irlanda se le ha asignado una previsión negativa y pronto podría reducirse su calificación también.

Ante los temores de que alguno de los países de la zona del euro pudiera declarar una moratoria, los márgenes de rendimiento de los bonos gubernamentales entre los países de la UME han alcanzado récords históricos. Desde hace algún tiempo, los rendimientos de los bonos del gobierno griego a diez años han estado alrededor de 300 puntos de base por encima de los alemanes. Esta es una señal de que los inversionistas ahora ven un riesgo significativo de moratoria griega o de que Grecia salga de la UME y redenomine sus bonos gubernamentales.

Pero el pánico de que la UME se puede desintegrar es exagerado. En lugar de declarar moratorias y salir de la zona del euro, es más probable que los Estados miembros anulen un principio básico de la UME y rescaten a otro Estado miembro.

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