Слишком европейские, чтобы обанкротится

БЕРЛИН - У инвестиционных банкиров вновь появились опасения, что некоторые страны могут покинуть Европейский валютный союз – или, что их могут к этому подтолкнуть. Агентства, устанавливающие рейтинги ценных бумаг, снизили оценку Португалии, Греции и Испании, в связи с их маловероятной перспективой экономического роста и слабым государственным финансированием. Оценочная перспектива Ирландии была отрицательной, так что вскоре ее также может постигнуть снижение оценки.

Разница в доходности правительственных облигаций среди стран ЕВС достигла рекордно высокого уровня, когда появились опасения, что в некоторых странах еврозоны может наступить дефолт. За определенный отрезок времени доходность греческих десятилетних правительственных облигаций стала приблизительно на 300 пунктов выше доходности немецких облигаций. Это – явный признак того, что инвесторы сегодня видят в Греции существенный риск дефолта, или возможность ее выхода из ЕВС с деноминацией правительственных облигаций.

Однако паника относительно того, что ЕВС может распасться, довольно сильно преувеличена. Вместо дефолта и последующего выхода из еврозоны, государства-члены скорее отвергнут фундаментальные принципы ЕВС, и окажут поддержку своему соседнему государству-члену, оказавшемуся в беде.

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