资不抵债银行应该国有化

    纽约--一年前,我预计美国金融机构的亏损将会达到一万亿美元,甚至可能高达两万亿美元。当时,经济学家和决策者的共识是这些估计言过其实,因为人们相信次贷损失总共只有大约两千亿美元。

    正如我所指出的,随着美国和全球经济滑入严重的衰退,银行亏损将会大大超出次贷领域,包括次贷,近次级以及优等房贷、商业房地产、信用卡、车贷和学生贷款、企业和商业贷款、企业债券、国家、州以及地方政府债券以及所有这些贷款所证券化资产的亏损。确实,从那时以来,美国银行的抵销已经超出了一万亿美元(也就是我的最低估计),而国际货币基金组织和高盛公司等机构现在估计亏损要超出两万亿美元。

    但是如果你认为两万亿美元的数字已经庞大,那么,我的研究咨询公司RGE所做的估计表明美国各金融公司做出的贷款总体亏损及其持有的资产市值下跌将会高达大约三点六万亿美元。

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