人民币升值的时期到了

中国正在受到停止在世界货币市场内支撑美元的干涉政策的压力,其反对者强调这样的政策正在给其他国家造成多大的伤害。但是对于另外一种指出放弃当前把人民币与美元固定的汇率政策对中国自身的经济状况可能带来多少好处的看法,中国政府可能会做出更加积极的反应。

这样的看法不难理解。中国目前正在实行一种自相矛盾的政策,在损害自身经济的同时通过适应联邦储蓄的泵水政策支撑美国的经济。中国和香港是美国国库证券最大的净购者。否则,国库债券收益率将比现在高得多,从而阻碍联邦储备的货币扩张。

在中国国内,盯住美元的做法带来了大量的且仍在增长的外汇储备,从而刺激国内通货膨胀的压力,造成公共部门负债激增。这是因为官方的资金控制强迫出口商将硬通货存入中国人民银行,兑换成新近印制的人民币(通常是作为银行存款)或政府债券。这两种做法最终都将无以为继,因为这两种做法要不是产生无法忍受的通胀率,要不就会造成无法承受的公共部门债务负担。

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