Esta recuperación es diferente

BRUSELAS – El error de pensar que «esta vez es diferente» condujo a los responsables de políticas a permitir que el exceso crediticio de principios de la década de 2000 se prolongase excesivamente, preparando el terreno para la mayor crisis financiera que podemos recordar. Pero ahora, cuando se trata de la recuperación, creer que esta vez no debiera ser diferente puede resultar igualmente peligroso.

Muchos responsables de políticas y economistas han observado que la recuperación de la crisis financiera de 2007-2008 ha sido mucho más lenta que la mayoría de las recuperaciones de la era de posguerra, que necesitaron, en promedio, poco más de un año para devolver la producción y el empleo a sus niveles anteriores. Según este estándar, la recuperación actual es inaceptablemente lenta: la producción y el empleo aún se mantienen por debajo del máximo anterior. Los responsables de políticas justifican entonces el uso de todas las maniobras macroeconómicas disponibles para lograr una recuperación que se asemeje a las del pasado.

Al adoptar esa postura, los funcionarios son reacios a considerar que la reciente crisis es resultado del estallido de una burbuja crediticia sin precedentes. En alguna medida, podría haber una lógica en esperar también un repunte sin precedentes. Cuando surgió la crisis, muchos se ilusionaron con una recuperación con forma de V, sin reparar en la gran cantidad de investigaciones que indicaban que las recuperaciones de recesiones causadas por crisis financieras tienden a ser más débiles y lentas que las de recesiones «normales».

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