本次复苏与以往不同

发自布鲁塞尔——“这次与以往不同”的错误理念导致政策制定者们纵容2000年代初的信贷繁荣持续时间过长,并因此为我们记忆中最严重的金融危机埋下了伏笔。而今复苏开始之时,那种认为这次不应与以往不同的理念也可能是同样危险的。

许多政策制定者和经济学家都观察到2007-2008金融危机后的复苏要比二战后任何一次复苏都缓慢许多,因为后者平均只需一年多一点就能恢复到先前的产量和就业率水平。用这一标准来衡量的话,当前的复苏简直慢得让人无法接受,而产量和就业率水平依旧低于之前的峰值。政策制定者们因此认定应该使用一切宏观经济杠杆去实现一个与从前类似的复苏。

在这种做法下,官员们都不愿去思考最近这场危机其实是由一场史无前例的信贷泡沫爆破所导致的。当危机爆发之时,许多人都希望能出现V型复苏,然而一项严谨详实的研究表明由金融危机导致衰退后的复苏要比“常规”衰退后的复苏更为弱势,也更加缓慢。

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