El año del pesimismo racional

NUEVA YORK – Recientemente, alguien hizo el chiste de que lo mejor de 2011 era que probablemente 2012 sería peor. Del mismo modo, aunque ha habido mucha preocupación por el estancamiento político de los Estados Unidos, podría haber ocurrido algo peor para éstos y para el mundo: los republicanos podrían haber impuesto su programa de austeridad con redistribución para los ricos. Los recortes automáticos no ocurrirán hasta 2013, lo que significa que en 2012 la economía se salvará, pero por poco.

Dos datos positivos más sobre 2011: los Estados Unidos parecen haber advertido por fin el abismo que separa a los ricos de los demás, al uno por ciento de todos los demás, y los movimientos juveniles de protesta, desde la “primavera árabe” hasta los indignados españoles y los de Occupy Wall Street, han revelado con claridad que algo falla gravemente en el sistema capitalista.

Sin embargo, es probable que los problemas económicos y políticos que quedaron tan manifiestos en los EE.UU. y en Europa en 2011 –y que hasta ahora se han abordado tan mal– empeoren simplemente en 2012. Cualquier pronóstico para los próximos años depende, más de lo habitual, de la política; del desenlace de la paralización en los EE.UU y de la capacidad de los dirigentes europeos para afrontar a la crisis del euro. Los pronósticos económicos son bastante difíciles, pero, en cuanto a los pronósticos políticos, nuestras bolas de cristal resultan aún más nubladas. Dicho esto, ésta es mi conjetura.

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