El año del pesimismo racional

NUEVA YORK – Recientemente, alguien hizo el chiste de que lo mejor de 2011 era que probablemente 2012 sería peor. Del mismo modo, aunque ha habido mucha preocupación por el estancamiento político de los Estados Unidos, podría haber ocurrido algo peor para éstos y para el mundo: los republicanos podrían haber impuesto su programa de austeridad con redistribución para los ricos. Los recortes automáticos no ocurrirán hasta 2013, lo que significa que en 2012 la economía se salvará, pero por poco.

Dos datos positivos más sobre 2011: los Estados Unidos parecen haber advertido por fin el abismo que separa a los ricos de los demás, al uno por ciento de todos los demás, y los movimientos juveniles de protesta, desde la “primavera árabe” hasta los indignados españoles y los de Occupy Wall Street, han revelado con claridad que algo falla gravemente en el sistema capitalista.

Sin embargo, es probable que los problemas económicos y políticos que quedaron tan manifiestos en los EE.UU. y en Europa en 2011 –y que hasta ahora se han abordado tan mal– empeoren simplemente en 2012. Cualquier pronóstico para los próximos años depende, más de lo habitual, de la política; del desenlace de la paralización en los EE.UU y de la capacidad de los dirigentes europeos para afrontar a la crisis del euro. Los pronósticos económicos son bastante difíciles, pero, en cuanto a los pronósticos políticos, nuestras bolas de cristal resultan aún más nubladas. Dicho esto, ésta es mi conjetura.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/2RFdEsv/es;
  1. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

    Angela Merkel’s Endgame?

    The collapse of coalition negotiations has left German Chancellor Angela Merkel facing a stark choice between forming a minority government or calling for a new election. But would a minority government necessarily be as bad as Germans have traditionally thought?

  2. Trump Trade speech Bill Pugliano/Getty Images .

    Preparing for the Trump Trade Wars

    In the first 11 months of his presidency, Donald Trump has failed to back up his words – or tweets – with action on a variety of fronts. But the rest of the world's governments, and particularly those in Asia and Europe, would be mistaken to assume that he won't follow through on his promised "America First" trade agenda.

  3. A GrabBike rider uses his mobile phone Bay Ismoyo/Getty Images

    The Platform Economy

    While developed countries in Europe, North America, and Asia are rapidly aging, emerging economies are predominantly youthful. Nigerian, Indonesian, and Vietnamese young people will shape global work trends at an increasingly rapid pace, bringing to bear their experience in dynamic informal markets on a tech-enabled gig economy.

  4. Trump Mario Tama/Getty Images

    Profiles in Discouragement

    One day, the United States will turn the page on Donald Trump. But, as Americans prepare to observe their Thanksgiving holiday, they should reflect that their country's culture and global standing will never recover fully from the wounds that his presidency is inflicting on them.

  5. Mugabe kisses Grace JEKESAI NJIKIZANA/AFP/Getty Images

    How Women Shape Coups

    In Zimbabwe, as in all coups, much behind-the-scenes plotting continues to take place in the aftermath of the military's overthrow of President Robert Mugabe. But who the eventual winners and losers are may depend, among other things, on the gender of the plotters.

  6. Oil barrels Ahmad Al-Rubaye/Getty Images

    The Abnormality of Oil

    At the 2017 Abu Dhabi Petroleum Exhibition and Conference, the consensus among industry executives was that oil prices will still be around $60 per barrel in November 2018. But there is evidence to suggest that the uptick in global growth and developments in Saudi Arabia will push the price as high as $80 in the meantime.

  7. Israeli soldier Menahem Kahana/Getty Images

    The Saudi Prince’s Dangerous War Games

    Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is working hard to consolidate power and establish his country as the Middle East’s only hegemon. But his efforts – which include an attempt to trigger a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon – increasingly look like the work of an immature gambler.