L’année du pessimisme rationnel

NEW YORK – Non sans esprit, quelqu’un a récemment déclaré que la meilleure chose à propos de 2011 est qu’elle sera probablement meilleure que 2012. De même, alors que l’impasse politique aux Etats-Unis a fait couler beaucoup d’encre, on a en fait évité quelque chose de pire pour le pays et le monde en général :  les Républicains auraient pu imposer leur programme d’austérité et de redistribution vers les plus riches. Les coupes automatiques n’arriveront pas avant 2013, ce qui veut dire que l’économie sera un tant soit peu épargnée en 2012.

Deux notes plus positives pour 2011 : les Etats-Unis semblent enfin s’être rendu compte de l’écart béant entre les riches et le reste – entre les 1% les plus riches et tous les autres. En outre, les mouvements de protestation menés par les jeunes, depuis le Printemps Arabe jusqu’aux indignados espagnols et l’action Occupy Wall Street, ont mis en évidence qu’il y a un grave problème avec le système capitaliste.

Pourtant, il est probable que les problèmes économiques et politiques qui étaient si manifestes aux USA et en Europe en 2011 – et qui ont été terriblement mal gérés jusqu’à présent – ne feront qu’empirer en 2012. Tout pronostic pour l’année à venir dépend, plus encore que d’habitude, des choix politiques qui seront pris ou non – de la solution le blocage politique américain ainsi que de la capacité des leaders européens à répondre à la crise de l’euro. Et, si les prévisions économiques sont difficiles, nos boules de cristal deviennent encore plus nuageuses lorsqu’il s’agit de prévoir les politiques. Ceci dit, voici ce que j’anticipe.

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