Неправильное лекарство строгой экономии

БЕРКЛИ (шт. Калифорния, США). Налогово-бюджетное расточительство не вызвало кризиса суверенного долга, охватившего Европейский Союз, и строгая экономия не решит его. Напротив, подобная строгая экономия обострила кризис и теперь грозит обрушить евро и отправить мировую экономику во второй штопор.

В 2007 году Испания и Ирландия были примерами финансовой правильности с намного меньшим соотношением долга к ВВП, чем у Германии. Инвесторы не беспокоились о риске дефолта испанского или ирландского суверенного долга или о хронически большом суверенном долге Италии. Италия вообще хвасталась самым низким соотношением дефицита к ВВП в еврозоне, и у правительства Италии не было проблем с рефинансированием по привлекательным процентным ставкам. Даже Греция, несмотря на стремительную потерю своей конкурентоспособности и свой все более неустойчивый налогово-бюджетный путь, могла привлекать необходимый ей капитал.

Введенные в заблуждение сближением доходности облигаций, которое последовало за введением евро, инвесторы подпитывали десятилетний кредитный бум частного сектора в менее развитых периферийных странах ЕС и не смогли распознать «мыльный пузырь» недвижимости в Испании и Ирландии, а также сползание Греции к неплатежеспособности. Когда экономический рост резко замедлился и кредитные потоки иссякли как следствие Великого экономического спада, бюджетные доходы резко упали, правительства были вынуждены национализировать обязательства частного сектора и до небес взлетел бюджетный дефицит и долги.

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