L’effondrement de l’État dans le monde arabe

BOSTON – Le Printemps arabe a fait naître un torrent d’espoirs chez tous ceux combattant ou œuvrant pour la démocratisation des régimes autoritaires du monde arabe. Aujourd’hui, à la suite des changements de leadership en Tunisie, en Égypte, en Lybie et au Yémen, ainsi qu’au vu de la guerre civile violente qui fait rage en Syrie, et de situations de plus en plus tendues au Bahreïn, au Soudan, en Jordanie et en Irak, le débat tourne de plus en plus autour d’un changement majeur – et d’un espoir d’amélioration – dans la nature et les perspectives de l’État arabe.

Or, cet espoir – vêtu d’un « costume de plumes, » selon la formule de la poétesse américaine Emily Dickinson – démontre souvent peu de ressemblance avec la réalité du terrain. En effet, à y regarder de plus près, la beauté du Printemps arabe semble avoir cédé la place à un hiver extrêmement difficile.

Malgré l’ampleur de l’optimisme apparu il y a deux ans, il se pourrait qu’un certain nombre de réalités politiques rendent le système d’État-nation incompatible avec ce nouveau monde arabe qui émerge aujourd’hui. Ainsi, la capacité de la région à maintenir un équilibre en l’absence d’États-nations stables résonne comme une question de plus en plus épineuse.

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