Paul Lachine

Verschiedene Arten der Arbeitslosigkeit

BERKELEY – Aus erstaunlich vielen Lagern hört man dieser Tage, die Regierungen in Europa und Nordamerika und ihre Zentralbanken sollten die expansive Geldpolitik aufgeben, mit der sie versucht haben, Arbeitsplätze zu schaffen. Die hohe Arbeitslosigkeit, die derzeit die Nordatlantik-Region plagt, behaupten Kritiker der staatlichen Konjunkturmaßnahmen, sei nicht konjunkturell bedingt, sondern „strukturell“ und könne daher nicht vermindert werden, indem man mithilfe der Politik die Gesamtnachfrage steigert.

Ich möchte als Erster darauf hinweisen, dass strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit eine echte und ernstzunehmende Gefahr darstellt. Wenn Menschen, die unter anderen Umständen zufriedene, gesunde und produktive Arbeitskräfte sein könnten, nicht über die Ausbildung, das Selbstvertrauen, die sozialen Netzwerke und die Erfahrung verfügen, die sie brauchen, um lohnende Arbeit zu finden, haben wir offenbar ein Problem. Und wenn die Arbeitslosigkeit in Europa und Nordamerika noch zwei oder drei weitere Jahre erhöht bleibt, ist es wahrscheinlich, dass wir uns damit auseinandersetzen müssen. Denn nichts verwandelt konjunkturelle Arbeitslosigkeit mit größerer Sicherheit in strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit, als wenn die Arbeitslosigkeit lange anhält.

Doch ist das heute der Fall? Sieht es derzeit danach aus, als wäre strukturelle Arbeitslosigkeit das größte Problem, mit dem die europäische und die nordamerikanische Wirtschaft zu kämpfen hätte? Die Antwort lautet Nein.

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